Thursday, July 27, 2006
Terrorist nukes against the US? I don't think so.
I know it's a bit of hyperbole, but for the sake of argument I can safely say that MAD is what won the Cold War for the west. The result was that the USSR ruined its economy and infrastructure to try to maintain nuclear parity. Nukes are expensive to make, to maintain, and to dispose of afterwards... and it's that last point that gives us the real reason to fear that USSR nukes might be wending their way through the global black market in arms.
I will not deny the possibility of a "suitcase nuke" being used against the perceived enemies of the Muslim fanatics. My point is that it would have happened by now if they had the nukes in their possession... and now I must add to that the possibile role that MAD may be playing in keeping those suitcases unused.
Think, just for a moment. Afghanistan under the Taliban openly and vehemently supported the group responsible for the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. Where were they a year later? Dead, in hiding, in exile. The US missed a golden PR opportunity (or maybe I missed seeing it?) by not emphasizing the point: fuck with the US, and you go down, hard. Let us be clear about it: we forcibly removed a sovereign nation's government because it allowed people on its soil to perpetrate an act of war upon our soil.*
In terms of proportionality, it was exactly right.
So, here's where I hope our then leaders understand the situation should a suitcase nuke be used here (or in Europe for that matter). Find the source, fasten the responsibility including the passive blame, and wipe them out. I'm pretty sure the fanatics understand this very well, and their "hosts" are warning them that there are lines that must not be crossed, or the "hosts" will waste no time in saving their own asses and hunting the fanatics down themselves.
I sincerely hope my little scenario does not get a chance to be proven correct. But that is my view.
* For another topic: this is precisely the scenario at work in the Israel/Lebannon mess right now.